This first edition, titled “Nigeria’s Post Oil Economy: Going the Housing Consumer Credit Path”, is a critical analysis of the employment cum income potentials of the manufacturing and construction sectors, positioning the housing subsector especially as an alternative for revitalizing Nigeria’s economy, and as a viable revenue alternative to the government’s perennial debt financing.

The Housing Advisory Note explains the unsustainability of aggressive deficit spending to sustain economic growth and the undesirability of the monetisation of deficit which rather weakens macroeconomic outcomes.

It examines previous attempts to stimulate the economy and how these attempts have predominantly focused on production, neglecting consumption. It explains how tapping into consumer demand can boost economic growth.

The report presents a clear path on how housing construction and homeownership may be a silver bullet, stimulating the construction and manufacturing sector, which can, in turn, create more jobs and employment, and drastically reduce Nigeria’s huge housing deficit. Homeownership in Nigeria is lower than in most countries. Only 35.7 percent of Nigerians residing in urban areas own their homes, down from the 2016 level of 48.1 percent. 

This deficit is indicative of challenges with affordability and availability, and the report suggests directing interventions at the Mortgage origination sector which could, in turn, trigger huge housing construction and jobs. 

Given that 60 percent of the investment in Housing will result directly in the purchase of construction input like aggregates, cement, wood & wood products, basic metal, iron & steel, electrical & electronics, and non-metallic products subsectors, such investment could potentially create millions of manufacturing, logistic and mining jobs in the short to medium term, thus, stimulating those sectors to productivity.

To reposition the housing sector, the report recommended deepening the secondary market for mortgage-backed securities, standardizing mortgage and foreclosure laws, simplifying mortgage payment structures, and reviewing the cost of building materials and training for local craftsmen.

The Dataphyte Advisory Note: Nigeria’s Post Oil Economy Going the Housing Consumer Credit Path” is a veritable resource for policymakers, especially as conversations around stimulating the economy and reducing Nigeria’s debt burden continue to take centre stage. Stakeholders in the Housing Sector will also benefit from the report’s insight on positioning the sector for big wins that underscore cross-cutting development.

The advisory note can be accessed using this link

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On June 4, 2021, the Nigerian government banned the operations of microblogging site, Twitter, stating that the company’s activities are “capable of undermining Nigeria’s corporate existence”. Some have argued that the government’s action was not really predicated on a democratic concern about Twitter’s influence on Nigeria’s politics, but a vindictive reaction to the platform’s deletion of President Buhari’s violence-invoking, anti-Biafra Tweet. Yet, regardless of whether the Nigerian government’s decision was reactionary or truly democratic, Nigeria’s Twitter ban feeds into a broader global concern about the big techs’ monopolising power over social conversations.

The influence of digital tech platforms has permeated all aspects of global politics and economy — from being able to disrupt the stock market (the GameStop short squeeze on Reddit) and making cross-border tax regulations more difficult (intangibility of assets), to the risks of data surveillance and misinformation. More worryingly, big techs’ reach far outpaces the extent to which governments and international institutions have been able to regulate their activities. This reach produces impacts in the most unusual ways, raising a fundamental concern of whether the powers of social media platforms could truly be checked by the government.

The consequences of a heavily digitised globe are innumerable — from concerns of data privacy to cross-border inconsistency in data governance; cybersecurity; as well as misinformation and content moderation during important political moments. As a result, governments are becoming resistant of the scarcely regulated world of data assets in which big social media companies are in possession of large amount of customers’ data that are rarely subject to public accountability (for instance, data on the numeric and demographic composition of Twitter users are publicly unavailable, while historic big data on trends/hashtags is only available to academic researchers).

As such, there have been numerous regulations or efforts targeting the governance and economic dynamics of digital tech —such as the push for a special antitrust law for big techs in the US, the Global Data Protection Regulation and Digital Sovereignty frameworks in the EU. Such policies that are generally “governance” and “economically ” oriented have moved swiftly across the global south, as we begin to see a solid policy reaction in developing (African) countries in the areas of data protection (e.g., the Nigeria Data Protection Regulation), the digital economy, cybersecurity, and data sharing.

Click this image to download the report

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The research brief also examines the various government interventions through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) like the Anchor Borrower’s Programme and the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF). These appear not to have produced the desired outcome, noting that commercial bank loans and advances to the agriculture sector have remained low even though the sector accounts for about 26.84% of economic activities in Nigeria.

The post From Farm to Future: Thoughts on Food Security, Farmers’ Prosperity and Fiscal Stability in Nigeria appeared first on Dataphyte United Kingdom.

This briefing paper delves into the driving forces behind foreign influence in West Africa’s security sector, examining the impact of established external powers on the region. With a focus on economic partnerships, trade relations, and the growing presence of non-state actors, the paper aims to uncover the motivations and implications of these influences on security dynamics in the region. By analysing the evolving alliances and investments in security, the paper seeks to provide insights into the complexities of addressing non-state actors and maintaining regime security in West Africa.

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The report, which focuses on the budget performances and challenges in the state’s health sector, resulted from extensive research by the organisations.

The report noted a significant reduction in the budget deviation of its health budget, decreasing from 46% in 2017 to just 2% in 2019.

It also stated that in the same period, the highest underspending was 48% in 2018 and the least underspending of 2% in 2021. Non-release of approved funds and problems associated with government prioritisation of approved projects were highlighted as responsible for the shortfall in budgetary expenditures on health in the report.

A review of the report shows that while the government had a high budget performance in terms of personnel expenditure, it performed abysmally on health infrastructure, with an approved budget of N23.2 million and actual releases of N2.9 million, with an 88% negative deviation that amounts to N20.3 billion.

Health programs also suffered, with an approved budget of N10.1 billion and an actual release of N1.3 billion between 2017 and 2021. 

In 2021, the government budgeted N3.1 million on health infrastructure but only spent N1.8 million, the highest amount between 2017 and 2021. In 2018, it budgeted N7.8 billion but only spent N400 million. 

Of note are the findings of the state’s spending on medical supplies and equipment during the COVID-19 period between 2019 and 2020.

Zero naira was spent on medical supplies in 2020 and zero on medical equipment in the same period.

It was mentioned in the report that funds approved on paper were not released, “inhibiting budget implementation and the mobilisation of resources necessary for full implementation of health services.”. Bureaucratic hurdles were also identified as a reason for delays in the release of funds. 

“Research findings show that the Niger State Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) typically receives less than 13% of its allocated budget to implement five key programs. 2017, only 142 million naira out of the 1.1 billion naira budgeted for these programs was released, marking the highest amount released between 2017 and 2020, equivalent to 13% of the budget.” the report noted.

It was also stated that the situation persisted in 2018, with the agency receiving a mere 2% of its budget, as only 28 million naira of the 2 billion naira budgeted was released.” 

Some issues with the prioritisation of spending noted include Political interference, late cash releases, and social and health problems.

Recommendations in the report include Improving financial forecasting and ensuring better alignment with approved budgets, transparency and participation in budget processes.

The report also clarified why MDAs’ memos are being disregarded, which leads to confusion and hindrance in the budget execution process. 

It submitted that “the government must ensure transparency and adopt clear communication and feedback processes to inform MDAs of the reasons for rejecting requests for fund releases.”

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Dataphyte, an organisation dedicated to providing access to data, research services, and training, has released a comprehensive study examining the agenda-setting role of the Nigerian media, particularly in election coverage. 

Titled “The Media’s Agenda-Setting Role: Insights from Coverage of Nigeria’s 2023 Elections,” the study assessed the nature of media coverage during the 2023 elections in Nigeria, aiming to identify key elements shaping narratives and assessing the media’s effectiveness in providing education and information during the electoral process.

Covering 10 national and 36 state media outlets across 18 strategically selected states, the study monitored online/print, TV, and radio platforms. The national media outlets monitored include Arise TV, Channels, DailyTrust, NTA, Premium Times, and The Cable.

Analysis of the topics covered by the media during the 2023 Elections revealed a significant focus on non-programmatic issues, such as election logistics, party politics and campaigns, corruption scandals and controversies, comprising 80% of news items monitored. Programmatic topics like education, health, vulnerable groups, humanitarian issues, and security received less focus, accounting for only 20% of coverage.

The report also highlighted the underrepresentation of women in media coverage, with only 0.4% of news stories focusing on gender-related topics, indicating a gap in mainstreaming gender discourse in Nigerian politics. Other findings in this report include the origin and sources of the voices that shaped the election narrative and their political affiliations.

“The outcome of this research underscores the media’s vital role in shaping public discourse and influencing electoral outcomes,” said Oluseyi Olufemi, Insight Lead at Dataphyte. “With this media monitoring exercise, we aim to stimulate dialogue and encourage self-assessment within the media industry on its role in sustaining democracy and the responsibility of information and education that rests on its shoulders. 

In conclusion, the report emphasises the need for greater focus on programmatic issues like education, healthcare, and gender equality to foster informed public discourse during elections. Media organisations are urged to represent diverse voices and viewpoints, ensure balanced coverage, and highlight more gender-related issues.

The full report, “The Media’s Agenda-Setting Role: Insights from Coverage of Nigeria’s 2023 Elections,” is available on Dataphyte’s website: https://bit.ly/The-Medias-Agenda-Setting-Role

Signed by
Joshua Olufemi
Founder, Dataphyte

The post Dataphyte Releases Report on Role of Media in Nigeria’s 2023 Elections Coverage appeared first on Dataphyte United Kingdom.

On June 4, 2021, the Nigerian government banned the operations of microblogging site, Twitter, stating that the company’s activities are “capable of undermining Nigeria’s corporate existence”. Some have argued that the government’s action was not really predicated on a democratic concern about Twitter’s influence on Nigeria’s politics, but a vindictive reaction to the platform’s deletion of President Buhari’s violence-invoking, anti-Biafra Tweet. Yet, regardless of whether the Nigerian government’s decision was reactionary or truly democratic, Nigeria’s Twitter ban feeds into a broader global concern about the big techs’ monopolising power over social conversations.

The influence of digital tech platforms has permeated all aspects of global politics and economy — from being able to disrupt the stock market (the GameStop short squeeze on Reddit) and making cross-border tax regulations more difficult (intangibility of assets), to the risks of data surveillance and misinformation. More worryingly, big techs’ reach far outpaces the extent to which governments and international institutions have been able to regulate their activities. This reach produces impacts in the most unusual ways, raising a fundamental concern of whether the powers of social media platforms could truly be checked by the government.

The consequences of a heavily digitised globe are innumerable — from concerns of data privacy to cross-border inconsistency in data governance; cybersecurity; as well as misinformation and content moderation during important political moments. As a result, governments are becoming resistant of the scarcely regulated world of data assets in which big social media companies are in possession of large amount of customers’ data that are rarely subject to public accountability (for instance, data on the numeric and demographic composition of Twitter users are publicly unavailable, while historic big data on trends/hashtags is only available to academic researchers). 

Download full report as PDF

As such, there have been numerous regulations or efforts targeting the governance and economic dynamics of digital tech —such as the push for a special antitrust law for big techs in the US,  the Global Data Protection Regulation and Digital Sovereignty frameworks in the EU. Such policies that are generally “governance” and “economically ” oriented have moved swiftly across the global south, as we begin to see a solid policy reaction in developing (African) countries in the areas of data protection (e.g., the Nigeria Data Protection Regulation), the digital economy, cybersecurity, and data sharing. 

Regulating the Political side of the Digital

However, despite these policy footprints, the political dimensions of social media impact have remained much-less regulated — more so on the African continent. Yet, the positive and negative externalities of social media on politics are wide-ranging than are often discussed. Too many times, countries focus only on disinformation and propaganda; yet the virtual world of social media has darker side-effects than just ‘fake news’ during elections. For instance, since voters’ source of information has hugely shifted from traditional media to the digital, many risk being locked in an echo chamber, where a specific set of information (even if correct) is repeatedly fed to a group of people based on their digital profile. Combined with the fact that many social media platforms like Twitter lend convenience to ‘brevity’ rather than an elaborate analysis of political issues, unaudited algorithms would swiftly lead to the distortion of political views — increasing political polarisation — even if actors are acting on a factual set of information. 

The chart below illustrates 5-umbrella areas where big tech platforms significantly impact politics. 

While many of the pain points within each umbrella area above require a complex interaction of government, citizens, and social media operators, the highlights in red suggest areas that require the sole attention of social media administrators. 

When it comes to elections, platforms like Twitter function as a townhall of ideas, where journalists and citizens reel out and monitor live updates on the voting process, civil society organisations mobilise and orientate the public, and policy makers share resources to keep the political conversation alive. For instance, during the 2019 general elections, many media organisations curated Twitter hashtags like #SnapandSend and #NigeriaDecides to mobilise citizens around a common resource and provide real-time results from each polling unit.  Yet, while such free speech could flourish more easily with Twitter, determining “whose” speech flourishes is another dynamic that raises concern on the extent of the platform’s sovereignty in content moderation.   In the Tweet deletion controversy between the Nigerian government and Twitter, the FG rightly pointed out that Twitter had paid very little attention to censoring the divisive hate speech that pro-Biafra leader, Nnamdi Kanu, consistently churned out on the platform. Twitter operators only began deleting Nnamdi Kanu’s Tweets 24 hours after the Nigerian government imposed a ban on the platform. Such selective moderation rarely catches the public’s attention. Whether President Buhari’s Tweets violated Twitter’s engagement rules isn’t up for debate, it sure did; the bigger concern is the lack of accountability and double standard that was swift to censor the President but let other non-state actors have a free day violating the platform’s engagement rules.  There was also Twitter’s lack of poor procedural engagement with the government prior to the Tweet deletion.

Download full report as PDF

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A prominent example of such ‘digital arms race’ is the ongoing US-China tech competition. This ‘Great Tech Rivalry’ as we know it broadly plays out in two forms: the first is the protectionist approach each party takes to limit the influence of the other’s technologies on its economy. For instance, in the last few years, Washington has imposed tough sanctions on Chinese tech companies — including limiting their access to critical American technologies such as semiconductors; banning the sale and import of services or products from Huawei and ZTE; and the recent scrutinisation of TikTok, prohibiting its usage on US’ state-owned devices. America is now also heavily concerned about the national security implications of its interdependence on Chinese technologies. Nonetheless, for all its recent decoupling efforts, Washington has historically been more open to technology relations with China than China has with it. On its end, Beijing is closed to all forms of foreign competition, not just with the U.S.; as evident in its highly restrictive import regime for digital services, a highly regulated internet space, and strong data localisation laws. 

How does this competition play out in Africa?

Whichever way it swings, this tech competition could significantly impact smaller and newly digitising economies that rely on Chinese and American technologies. In recent years, both countries have been working to gain an edge and expand their influence in regions like Africa, where internet penetration is rapidly shaping socioeconomic growth. For China, the ICT sector is a strategic entry point in its quest for global economic dominance. For context, ICT constitutes about 38.6 percent of China’s GDP. Beijing has also committed to positioning itself at the forefront of global technology innovation, as seen in its 14th 5-year plan (2021-2025) and President Xi Jinping’s speech at the last CCP conference. 

A recurrent discussion in African policy circles is the need for African governments to maintain agency in their relationship with both countries, and to navigate this complex digital ecosystem in a way that benefits them without subserving the agenda of either side of the digital geopolitical divide. A key concern, however, is whether non-alignment — which scholars have argued is a more pragmatic way for Africa to manage its foreign partnerships — is possible in an internet ecosystem mostly divided between the US and China. 

This piece examines how the US-China tech competition plays out in African countries. It is divided into two sections. The first part identifies 3 key areas in Africa’s digital ecosystem where China has been most active and where its activities intersect with Washington’s interest on the continent, namely: digital infrastructure, digital services, and digital education or tech talent development. The second section discusses the geopolitical implications of these activities on the African continent.

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The work accentuates its ongoing monitoring of foreign authoritarian influence in Nigeria and Africa, examining Chinese illegal mining in Nigeria within the context of Sino-Nigerian relations. It emphasises the political implications, such as policy deficiencies and corruption.

It also advocates for Nigeria to develop structured mining policies to prevent foreign exploitation and suggests diplomatic resolutions to ensure mutual benefits and sustain a positive relationship.

The report describes how, over five decades, Sino-Nigerian relations have flourished, with Nigeria emerging as one of China’s top 40 global trading partners and the country’s main hub for investments in Africa. 

By 2023, Chinese loans accounted for 80% of Nigeria’s bilateral debt, financing various infrastructure projects. Furthermore, Nigeria has surpassed Angola and South Africa to become China’s second-largest trade partner in Africa and its top investment destination on the continent.

The report also discusses the benefits and drawbacks of Nigeria’s relationship with China. Of particular note is the rise in illegal Chinese mining in Nigeria, which has had a significant impact on politics by exposing flaws in leadership, policymaking, governance, and the security sector.

This illicit activity exacerbates environmental degradation, undermines government revenue, fuels insecurity, and strains diplomatic relations. Nigeria’s federal system creates loopholes for exploitation, while lax policies fail to regulate the mining sector effectively. 

The report also revealed that Chinese miners and corrupt government officials work together to continue an illicit cycle of activity. Ensuing insecurity puts human rights and the authority of the state in jeopardy, calling for extensive security sector reform.

Corruption further undermines democratic values and development efforts, while strained diplomatic relations with China raise concerns about indirect support for terrorist activities. 

The report suggested that addressing these challenges requires robust policy reforms, enhanced regulation, security sector reform, and anti-corruption measures.

China must also ensure its nationals adhere to mining regulations. Failure to act decisively risks further destabilising Nigeria’s socio-political landscape and undermining prospects for sustainable development and bilateral relations. 

The report concluded that resolving this issue is critical for the two countries’ future economic and diplomatic developments. 

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Dataphyte has just released a policy brief on the dynamics of foreign influence in West Africa’s security sector, focusing on the role of the West, Russia, and China.

Titled “Foreign Influence in West Africa’s Security Sector: The West, Russia, and China”, the report examined the drivers of foreign influence in West Africa’s security sector and analysed the evolution in the role of state actors in the security landscape of the region.

The lingering security concerns and the recent coups in West Africa have highlighted the need to assess the dynamics of security in the region. While there is a consistent call for African countries to explore indigenous solutions to their development challenges, there is a growing concern in the region’s relationship with external powers such as China, Russia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. 

The report also dissects prevailing scepticism among African citizens on the region’s historical ties with Western allies and the new orientation that now informs their actions and activities. 

Furthermore, the report interrogated the activities of terrorist groups in Africa and how they shape the region’s decisions on security. It also examined how the security peculiarities in the West African region have shifted the role of ECOWAS from ensuring economic integration among member states to maintaining peace and stability.

The report concluded that while the influence wielded by foreign powers on the region’s security sector is unlikely to abate, well-developed strategies can create avenues for win-win engagement between domestic actors and foreign partners.

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